SPY 773.26 · net GEX +3.07bn$/1% (≤5 DTE), +5.66bn$/1% (≤30 DTE) · regime LONG-GAMMA · gamma-flip est ~775 (spot just below flip) · VIX 14.9 (−0.25).
Long-gamma with sub-15 VIX implies dealer-pinned, compressed ranges — banked edge is selling defined-risk premium (61.5% historical win) — but spot sits right at the flip line and Wednesday's CPI is the one release capable of knocking the market into short-gamma, so treat Wednesday morning as the week's main vol window.
| Day | Macro | Notable earnings |
|---|---|---|
| Mon 8/10 | 10:00 Employment Trends (Jul) | SPG, MNDY, PLUG, RKLB (~228 reports) |
| Tue 8/11 | 6:00 NFIB Small Business Optimism · 13:00 Treasury $58B 3-yr note auction | CAVA, HRB, SMCI (SMCI = never-trade list, calendar only) |
| Wed 8/12 | 8:30 CPI (Jul) — week's key print · 13:00 Treasury $39B 10-yr note auction · 14:00 Federal budget (Jul) | CSCO AMC (tier-2 exit at close), ENVX, STEM |
| Thu 8/13 | 8:30 PPI (Jul) + jobless claims · 13:00 Treasury $22B 30-yr bond auction | AMAT AMC, Coherent |
| Fri 8/14 | 8:30 Retail Sales (Jul) · 10:00 UMich Sentiment (prelim) + Business Inventories | Light day (~50 small caps) |
No FOMC meeting or minutes this week; no major scheduled Fed speakers surfaced. No 2pm ET Fed releases — CPI 8:30 Wed and PPI 8:30 Thu are the prime SPY scalp vol windows instead; 1pm auction tails (10-yr Wed, 30-yr Thu) are secondary intraday triggers.
| Name | Tier | Report | Entry (close) | Exit (close) | Expiry | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSCO | 2 (+1.3%/73% win) | Wed 8/12 AMC | Wed 8/5 — passed | Wed 8/12 | Fri 8/14 | Half / stock / call spread |
| No other tier-1/tier-2 name reports within 3 weeks. NVDA reports 8/26 — never-trade list for this structure, excluded. Next tier events: GS + JPM 10/13 BMO, BAC 10/14 BMO, NFLX 10/20 AMC, AXP ~10/23 (est), GOOGL/META/MSFT 10/28 AMC, AAPL/AMZN 10/29 AMC. MS/QCOM dates unconfirmed (data source down — web fallback), both expected Oct/Nov. | ||||||
Positioning enters the week long-gamma and VIX-suppressed, so expect pinned, mean-reverting SPY tape Monday–Tuesday and favor selling defined-risk premium over chasing direction. Wednesday 8:30 CPI is the singular catalyst: an upside inflation surprise from a spot-at-the-flip starting point is the one clean path to a short-gamma flip and 1.6x ranges — keep scalp powder dry for Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Absent a CPI shock, the week likely stays a premium-seller's regime with the CSCO exit Wednesday as the only mechanical action.